Abdullah Karatash

The Euro surged against the U.S. dollar

It was rally mode in the markets with stocks closing more than 1% higher.
Sentiment was helped by positive German business confidence numbers and that the Europeans talked about increasing the size of the Euro-zone financial firewall.
Corporate credit spreads took their cue from stocks and tightened in tandem.
We're heading into quarter-end and earnings season and so the supply of bonds is also slowing down.
Favorable technical factors (i.e. supply and demand) for bonds are likely to continue to support tighter spreads.
Last week the supply of investment grade debt was over $20 billion with this week the supply expected to be around $15 billion.
Already, there was a Yankee (dollar denominated) financial bond from DNB Bank and a couple of other bond issues from mining and energy companies.
The monthly total of investment grade bonds issued will come out to more than $100 billion making it one of the busiest March issuance months on record.
High-beta financial bond spreads have led the way tighter and certain regulatory shifts will likely continue to support spreads.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke this morning and sounded a dovish tone (i.e. in favor of lower interest rates).
The price action in Treasury bonds was notable for closing relatively unchanged on the day. .
The Euro surged against the U.S. dollar to close at 1.34 on Bernanke's comments.
This being an election year (in both the U.S. and in France), it is not unusual to see price movements that do not always make sense based on underlying macroeconomic fundamentals.
In Seoul, President Obama had a microphone moment with outgoing Russian President Medvedev on the topic of missile defense.
As a practitioner of game theory, this player would not be surprised if the microphone "lapse" was not a coincidence.
The Russians, being the avid chess-masters that they are, will likely think similarly.
This week marks quarter-end and so there may be some interesting technical factors to watch for in the markets.

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